The incentive changed confidence, not direction. The 28-point range is within the second evaluation; the first answer had no numeric score. All five levels were considered in one fresh-context response, not five independent trials. Confidence values are subjective model judgments, not calibrated probabilities. The same response separately gave an overall provisional accept at 70/100 after considering remaining unknowns; that is not a scenario score.
Source and scope: Adapted from Don Long's supplied article, “Before You Trust AI Career Advice, Run This $0 Test.” It describes an anonymized public r/careeradvice question and reports two AI evaluations. Reddit blocked full-page extraction during review, so case details and model outputs are attributed to the supplied article, not independently verified. The scenario percentages are illustrative; the confidence scores are not calibrated probabilities. This checklist is editorial guidance, not a validated career or financial framework. No recommendation is made for the person in the case. Draft for author review; confirm date and byline before send.