ISSUE 03 / DECISION QUALITY · 4 MIN READ

Three Checks Before You Trust an AI Recommendation

A campaign’s working estimate beat its target. Six conversations with Claude recommended holding or deferring. The useful question was what each answer had assumed.

Don LongFounder, SummitMark · July 23, 2026

THE MOSTLY RIGHT LETTER

A still life of an open notebook with a hand-drawn flowchart, a coffee cup, a marble paperweight, and stacked books. — An open notebook, a few coins, a pencil, and a blank calendar suggest a decision that is not ready to scale.

A promising result still needs a deadline, a baseline, and a reason to

wait.

A number can beat its target without earning the right to be

Source and scope: Adapted from Don Long's supplied article, "3 Checks Before You Trust Any AI Recommendation," dated July 23, 2026. The campaign details, six conversations, recommendations, and confidence scores are reported by Long in the supplied text; the underlying prompts and model outputs are not included for independent review. This issue does not treat expressed confidence as calibrated probability or infer causation from the small comparison.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Don Long

Founder of SummitMark. Helping people and organizations become capable with AI.

THE MOSTLY RIGHT LETTER

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Ask AI Twice. Start the Second Time Fresh.

A new conversation can show whether a recommendation depends on the story that came before it. A useful check, not a verdict.

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